Trumping everyone

It was a thing of some interest because Trump was known as a property magnate who had been bankrupt many times, and as a presenter of a tacky tv show (which I have to admit I have never seen, but I am told it’s tacky). There were times when Trump came up in conversation. I assured the locals he would win, bigly, and they laughed at me. Just a stupid foreigner who knows nothing. But I was right.

There are people I communicate with in the USA. They are not Trump supporters, and at least one is very happy that Trump ‘is going to lose the next election’. Looking at the polls, Biden for the Democrats has a big lead. But I say this:

  • a poll is not the election. What people do on 3 November is the only thing that counts (or before if they have some kind of mail in vote).
  • there’s a long time to go yet, and things will surely change
  • Trump is indeed behind by a big margin in some polls, but in others it is close, and, with a margin for error, he is not in a worse place than he was in 2016
  • most people expected Mrs Clinton to win, and she was ahead in the polls, and she didn’t
  • Democrats can get complacent and not vote, simply because they are lulled into thinking Trump can’t win. It was the same with the Brexit vote here – it was so ‘obvious’ that the remain vote would win that some Remainers didn’t bother. It made a difference.
  • anything can happen between now and then, including sabotage of the postal system by Trump
  • I know people who normally would vote Democrat who will not vote this time because Mr Biden’s running mate, Mrs Harris, is a woman. Imagine that!
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